US Energy Agency estimates 2020 LED price ≈ incandescent bulb price

　　According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's estimate, by 2020 the price differences between LED bulbs, fluorescent bulbs, and incandescent bulbs will be nearly very close. By then, due to continuously rising energy standards, incandescent bulbs will be phased out because they cannot meet energy-saving requirements.

　　Starting January 1, 2014, the United States began banning the production and sale of 40-watt and 60-watt incandescent bulbs, but before the ban took effect, many American households had already stockpiled many of these traditional bulbs, so next the 75-watt and 100-watt traditional bulbs will also become part of the ban.

　　Driven by federal standards and improvements in general lighting technology, bulb reliability has increased and lifespan continues to grow. As efficiency improves, general residential lighting energy consumption is also gradually declining. Therefore, although the initial purchase price of LED bulbs is higher, because LED bulbs are highly efficient, they can significantly save expenses compared to traditional bulbs.

　　Even so, most American households still believe that replacing 40W or 60W incandescent bulbs with LED bulbs is too expensive, so many households have turned to purchasing fluorescent bulbs to replace incandescent bulbs. However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that by 2020 this trend will shift, and the prices of LED and incandescent bulbs will be very close.

　　The U.S. Energy Information Administration believes that by 2020, LED bulbs will achieve an efficiency of more than 150 lumens per watt, nearly 10 times higher than the 16 lumens per watt light output efficiency of traditional 60W incandescent bulbs. In addition, LED bulbs can last up to 30 years, which will change the way people use light bulbs.

　　From now until 2020, halogen incandescent bulbs will continue to be used because they can meet general task lighting standards. However, as standards continue to rise by 2020, halogen incandescent bulbs will also face the fate of being unable to meet efficiency requirements, so manufacturers must now focus on developing more efficient technologies.

　　In the future, with continuous technological updates of LED bulbs accompanied by cost reductions, perhaps by 2025, the U.S. bulb market will be entirely replaced by a new generation of solid-state lighting, and this trend will spread globally.

　　Estimated efficiency and price trends for LED, fluorescent, and incandescent bulbs

Lamp Efficiency Price Trend

　　(Green represents LED bulbs, light blue represents fluorescent lamps, dark blue represents incandescent lamps)