VLSI Raises Global Semiconductor Equipment Forecast

　　Semiconductor equipment and materials market hot

　　VLSI has raised its forecast for the semiconductor equipment industry this year. In addition, due to the recovery of the global semiconductor market, Gartner has issued strong forecasts for growth in the silicon wafer market and IC capital spending. Another firm, Techcet, is optimistic about the prospects of the electronic materials market.

　　The Needham Edwin Mok report noted that most equipment manufacturers are more optimistic about the current situation than they were 4-6 months ago, leading us to believe that the recent industry recovery will extend into 2011.

　　C.J. Muse of Barclays Capital believes that overall semiconductor investment will grow 85% this year and approximately another 30% in 2011.

　　According to the latest VLSI report, in addition, IC equipment sales are expected to grow 96% in 2010, having previously been revised to a growth of 83%.

　　Although the global macroeconomy remains pessimistic, semiconductor manufacturers are optimistic about the second-half outlook. They expect strong growth in Q3 and a possible slight increase in inventory. Meanwhile, due to strong market demand and insufficient capacity, capacity utilization remains high at 95%, driving chip makers to invest further.

　　According to the report, lithography equipment lead times have extended, and back-end packaging equipment is also in short supply. In particular, test equipment lead times exceed the normal value (currently 10-12 weeks, versus the normal 6-8 weeks), so there is still no sign of decline until Q3.

　　Overall, semiconductor equipment orders will not weaken until 2010 Q4 (Q/Q). Following the large orders for front-end processes, due to rational responses from customers, back-end testing capacity will increase significantly. The industry continues to observe that this cycle differs from several previous cycles, the reason being that in the past it relied mainly on adding back-end capacity, whereas this time the focus is on being able to follow long-term technology roadmaps, such as parallel strip test, i.e., ordering more advanced testers.

　　Semiconductor Materials World

　　Takashi Ogawa, an analyst at Gartner, believes the semiconductor materials market is equally hot, reversing the double-digit decline seen in 2009. Demand for silicon wafers in the global market continued to rebound in 2010, with growth expected at 34.3%.

　　Gartner believes that demand for silicon wafers may weaken at the beginning of Q2 this year, because the promotion of market demand at the end of Q1 has already seen a significant boost.

　　'Similarly, due to rising silicon wafer demand, silicon wafer prices may rise after the sharp decline in 2009, either in 2010 1H or later. This situation will cause volatility in the silicon wafer pricing market, but as seasonal market demand rises in the second half of the year, the global silicon wafer market will enter a period of moderate adjustment in Q4 of this year.

　　According to the latest report from Techcet Group, photoresist manufacturers expect to recover to 95% of their 2008 sales in 2010, equivalent to US$1.14 billion, after a 25% decline in 2009. The global photoresist market is also projected to continue growing to US$1.5 billion over the next three years.

　　Flash memory manufacturers are clearly the drivers of lithography advancement, as they followed DRAM and processors in mass adoption of 193nm immersion lithography tools and double patterning technology. According to the company, 33% of global photoresist is used in 193nm (ArF) dry and immersion lithography. Although 248nm and i-line lithography remain the mainstream technology for most lithography layers in chip production, they account for only 43% of the market share; of course, they account for a higher proportion in terms of wafer throughput.

　　According to company data, the market for other ancillary photoresist materials, including strippers, developers, anti-reflective coatings, etc. (EBR, HMDS specialty solvents), is expected to reach sales of $1.05 billion this year, although developer sales alone declined by more than 25% in 2009.

　　The global electronic gases market in 2009 fell by 14% compared to 2008, to $2.37 billion. The global electronic gases market is expected to grow by 11% in 2010, with the specialty gases segment leading the growth at 15%, reaching $1.6 billion.

　　According to Techcet's forecast, the global electronic gases market is expected to exceed $2.9 billion by 2012.

　　In the 2009 global electronic gases market, Air Products remained first with a 26% market share, followed by Japan's Taiyo Nippon Sanso and Air Liquide at 22% each, Linde at 16%, and Praxair at 9%.