Lighting exports slump again in August: Sharp 29.6% drop to the US; when will tariff pressures ease?

According to data from the General Administration of Customs,in August 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exportsreached 3.87 trillionyuan, a year-on-year increase of3.5%, slowing by3.2 percentage pointscompared to the previous month;among them, exportswere 2.30 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of4.8%, alsoslowing by3.2 percentage points.In U.S. dollars, the total value of imports and exportswas then541.3 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of3.1%,slowing by2.8 percentage pointscompared to July; among them, exports were321.8 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of4.4%, also slowing by2.8 percentage pointscompared to July.

Dampened by factors such as a widening decline in trade with the US, a shift from growth to decline in trade with Latin America, a slowdown in the growth rate of trade with Africa, and a significant weakening of exports of labor-intensive goods, overall performance fell short of expectations, with the growth rate reaching its lowest level in six months.

By country and region, China's exports to the US in August continued to fall sharply, down 33.1% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -21.7% last month; the decline widened by 11.4 percentage points. It has now recorded five consecutive months of double-digit negative growth and remains the largest drag on exports, with the drag on the overall figure rising to 5.1 percentage points.

At the same time, exports to non-US trading partners remained relatively stable. Exports to the EU grew 10.4% year-on-year (previous value 9.2%); exports to Japan grew year-on-year by 6.7% (previous value 2.5%); exports to ASEAN grew year-on-year by 22.5% (previous value 16.6%); exports to Latin America declined 2.3% year-on-year (previous value 7.7%); exports to Africa grew 25.9% year-on-year (previous value 42.4%).

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Currently, China's export growth to Southeast Asia and Europe has offset the impact of declining exports to the US

From January to August 2025 , China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 29.57 trillion yuan , a year-on-year increase of 3.5% . Among them, exports amounted to 17.61 trillion yuan , a year-on-year increase of 6.9% , slowing down by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month; imports totaled 11.96 trillion yuan , a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% .

Jan-Aug, the regions with the highest share of China's exports were the EU and ASEAN, accounting for cumulative shares of 17.7%(Year-on-year (YoY) growth of 9.7%) and 15.1%(Year-on-year (YoY) growth of 4.3%), respectively; followed by the US and Latin America at 11.5% (Year-on-year (YoY) decline of 14.4%) and 8.0%.

Notably, the cumulative share of exports to Africa over the first eight months has reached 5.7%, making it one of the current structural highlights of exports. Exports to Vietnam over the first eight months saw a Year-on-year (YoY) growth of 31.0%, representing the second structural highlight of exports, with China's supply chain being the main upstream source for its industrial sector.

同期，我国对共建“一带一路”市场合计进出口15.30万亿元，同比增长5.4%，占比提升至53.6%。同期，我国出口机电产品10.60万亿元，同比增长9.2%，占出口总值超60%。

The performance of export volumes for most commodities was stronger, showing that the characteristic of 'trading price for volume' remains significant. Global recessionary pressures and repeated US tariff policies will continue to be the main challenges for exports this year.

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2025年8月，中国照明产品出口额录得40亿美元，同比下降14.8%，前值为4.2%，降幅扩大达10.6个百分点；环比则下滑10.8%，前值为-8.6%。

After the Sino-US Geneva Joint Statement on mutual tariff reductions, some enterprises seized the "tariff transition period" to "rush exports" and "rush transshipment", helping to adjust June export data, but at the same time partially透支ing subsequent demand; this effect naturally weakened relatively in July-August, leading to a corresponding contraction in data.

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2025年1-8月，中国照明产品出口总额为344亿美元，同比下降7.1%，比前值降幅扩大1.1个百分点，而去年同期增速为-4.1%。其中LED照明产品出口额269亿美元，同比下滑2.3%，去年同期增速为-4.5%，占整体出口额的比重超78%，去年同期比重为75%。

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Regarding exports to the United States, in August 2025, the monthly export value of lighting products to the U.S. was USD 740 million, representing a significant Year-on-year (YoY) decline of 29.6%. The decline widened significantly by another 16.8 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the second-largest drop this year after May (-36.6%). Meanwhile, there was a month-on-month decrease of 20.5%, with the share of total exports at 18.5%, down by 2.2 percentage points from the previous month; the gap between the decline rate for exports to the U.S. and the overall market decline reached 14.8 percentage points, widening by 6.2 percentage points;

From January to August 2025, cumulative exports of lighting products to the US amounted to only $6.85 billion, a year-on-year (YoY) decline of 17.6%, representing a low share of total exports at 19.9%.

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Looking at monthly data, in January-February 2025 at the start of the year, export values recorded their largest decline since March 2024 due to factors such as a high base from the same period last year, disruptions from the Spring Festival misalignment, and the end of the "pre-election export rush" phase before Trump's presidential inauguration. By March, earlier disruptive factors had dissipated, supply-side bottlenecks gradually eased, tariff impacts were not yet evident, and combined with the low comparative base effect from the previous year, data showed a rebound.

Starting in the second quarter, the impact of U.S. reciprocal tariffs on exports began to gradually emerge, with declines recorded in both April and May. In June, the decline narrowed due to a temporary easing of tariff tensions between China and the United States. In July, exports declined again as the rush-to-export and transshipment effects weakened. In August, the decline widened due to factors such as base effects, tariff policies, and RMB appreciation.

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In the second quarter of 2025, U.S. imports from China reached a new low since 2006.

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In recent years, the US trade deficit with China has gradually decreased, and the corresponding surplus has shifted to other Asian countries, particularly Southeast Asia.

Following Geneva, London, and Stockholm, on September 14, the new round of China-US bilateral trade talks in Madrid艰难ly commenced, discussing issues such as tariff barriers, export controls, and technology blockades.

The author tentatively believes that, according to US Treasury Secretary Bessent's "color bucket" theory (Real-time comparison of average tariff rates on Chinese lighting product exports to the US with other economies (2025-8-1)), regarding reciprocal tariffs, the best rate China can obtain is likely not lower than 25%. Efforts should focus on securing a 20% IEEPA tariff exemption , while the 301 tariffs from 2018 have already been largely adapted to by both supply and demand sides in China and the US.

In summary, it can be anticipated that the China-US game will still go through a complex and tortuous process, with foreign trade uncertainty and fragmentation risks remaining strong.

After the first half of the year saw a rush to export and re-export, which prematurely consumed demand, the impact of external environmental fluctuations such as tariffs, exchange rates, and inflation on China's will mainly manifest in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter. In the later period, the growth rate of lighting exports will continue to be dragged down by multiple factors including tariffs, exchange rates, and prices.

The above article originates from the Guangya Lighting Research Institute, authored by Wen Qidong.

Lighting exports slump again in August: Sharp 29.6% drop to the US; when will tariff pressures ease?

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