Outlook for the Foreign Trade Situation in the Lighting Industry in 2025

(1) Stability. China's lighting exports remained overall stable, with a steady share of key product exports and stable performance in key export markets.

In 2024, China's lighting product exports totaled USD 56.1 billion, a slight year-on-year (YoY) decrease of 0.3%. The total export value remained at a historically high level, accounting for 3% of the total electromechanical product exports for eight consecutive years.

Among them, luminaire exports remained stable, with an export value of approximately USD 42.4 billion, accounting for 76% of the total lighting industry exports. Exports of certain luminaire products achieved growth, playing a key supporting role in stabilizing the overall industry exports. Specifically, the year-on-year (YoY) growth rates for fixed luminaires were 9.8% in volume and 0.8% in value; for portable luminaires, 17.7% in volume and 2.2% in value; and for other electric lamps and lighting devices that are photovoltaic and designed to use only light-emitting diode (LED) sources, 56.4% in volume and 35% in value.

The two major key export markets, Europe and America, maintained stable export values of approximately USD 27.2 billion, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 0.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points from the first 11 months, accounting for 48% of the total export value.

From the perspective of individual export destinations, the top ten markets for China's lighting product exports in 2024 were: the United States, Germany, Malaysia, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Vietnam, Japan, the Netherlands, Thailand, and India. The export values remained overall stable at approximately USD 28 billion, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of about 3%; this accounts for about 50% of China's lighting export value, basically consistent with the previous year.

(2) New. The proportion of new content in export products has increased, markets along the Belt and Road have become new growth points, and LED module exports have reached a new high.

Driven by policy orientation and market forces, China's photovoltaic lighting and automotive lighting exports are ushering in new and favorable development opportunities. In 2024, the export value of China's photovoltaic lighting products was approximately USD 1.8 billion, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 35%, accounting for 3% of the total export value of China's lighting industry, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to 2023. This has not only enriched the global supply of green lighting products but also contributed Chinese strength to the global response to climate change and the achievement of a green and low-carbon transition.

In 2024, the value of China's lighting products exported to markets along the "Belt and Road" was approximately USD 25.2 billion, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 3%, accounting for 45% of the total export value of China's lighting products, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the same period last year. The top ten "Belt and Road" markets (excluding European countries) are Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan, with an export value of USD 12.7 billion, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 11%; accounting for approximately 50% of the markets along the "Belt and Road", an increase of 3 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

As traditional electric light source products are rapidly phased out, overseas demand for China's LED module products has surged, with annual exports reaching approximately 5.9 billion units, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of about 488%. Exports to countries or regions such as India, Egypt, and Vietnam accounted for approximately 61% of the total export volume of LED module products, an increase of 11 percentage points compared to 2023; these countries or regions are also potential competitors for China in overseas markets. Among them, the largest number of LED modules were exported to India, with approximately 1.3 billion units throughout the year, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 736%. The import growth rate for this product in some regions exceeded 1600%. The export value of China's LED modules was approximately USD 480 million, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 69%. The largest export value was to the United States, approximately USD 70 million, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 84%. The rapid growth in exports of this product reflects, from one perspective, the current situation of the relocation of certain links in China's lighting supply chain.

(3) Decline. The average export price of products continued to fall, and exports of electric light source products continued to decline.

Last year, the export volume of traditional electric light source products such as thermal radiation sources and gas discharge light sources decreased by 16% year-on-year (YoY), accounting for about 10% of the total export volume of electric light sources for general lighting, a decrease of 9 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In terms of export value, from January to December, China's export value of electric light source products was approximately USD 6.3 billion, down 8.5% year-on-year (YoY), accounting for 11% of the total export value of China's lighting industry, a decrease of 1 percentage point compared to 2023.

(1) Increasing variables in the foreign trade environment

After the new U.S. administration took office, it adhered to the "America First" principle, continuously bringing new uncertainties to the world through trade restriction measures such as tariff increases, anti-dumping, and countervailing duty investigations, further disrupting the global trade landscape and increasing trade friction worldwide. On February 1, 2025, the U.S. government announced a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods exported to the United States, citing issues such as fentanyl, which officially took effect on February 4. This tariff increase by the United States covers lighting products under all 59 tax codes from China, with post-tariff rates ranging from 12% to 47.5%. Since the start of the China-U.S. trade dispute in 2018, China's Export of lighting products to the United States has shown a fluctuating trend. Specifically, the Export value of lighting products from China to the United States decreased by approximately 13% in 2019. After a brief rebound during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, exports declined again starting in 2022, with the decline widening to 16% in 2023. Although the decline slowed to 1% in 2024, this further tariff increase by the United States has once again disrupted global supply chains and market supply-demand stability.

(2) Enhanced support for foreign trade

In response to changes in the external environment, since September 2024, multiple departments of the Chinese government have successively introduced a package of incremental policies to boost the confidence of market entities and consolidate the foundation for economic stabilization and recovery. The Central Economic Work Conference held last December clearly deployed tasks regarding "expanding high-level opening up, stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment." Subsequent policies to stabilize foreign trade and promote growth will provide strong support for the high-quality development of China's foreign trade. Recently, the State Council held an executive meeting to study work related to boosting consumption; the Ministry of Commerce held a national foreign trade work conference, emphasizing the need to strengthen confidence, adhere to goal-oriented and problem-oriented approaches, soberly recognize the complexity and severity of the foreign trade situation, go all out to stabilize foreign trade growth, and expand new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce to help enterprises explore international markets. The State Taxation Administration also recently issued the "Announcement on Matters Concerning Export Tax Rebates (Exemptions) to Support the Development of Cross-Border E-Commerce Overseas Warehouses," clarifying matters related to export tax rebates (exemptions) for taxpayers exporting goods via overseas warehouses (customs supervision code "9810"), further leveraging the positive role of export tax rebates in supporting the development of cross-border e-commerce overseas warehouses (hereinafter referred to as export overseas warehouses), providing guarantees for the industry's development this year. From a monetary policy perspective, under the tone of "moderately loose," it is expected that the central bank will continue to implement reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2025, maintaining reasonable liquidity abundance and strong support for the real economy. The introduction of these favorable policies also provides good policy support for the stable development of China's lighting industry.

(I) The international community sends positive signals

The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects global trade to expand moderately, with the volume of world merchandise trade growing by 3.0% in 2025, and inflation may decline. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Autumn Report forecasts global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025. From a macro perspective, factors such as the recovery of the international economy, trade diversion, and the upturn in the global manufacturing cycle can alleviate the impact of trade friction to a certain extent.

(II) Enterprises actively strive for a strong start

According to our association's survey, after the Spring Festival holiday, industry enterprises have gradually resumed work and production. Most large and medium-sized export enterprises stated that their order situation remained basically stable compared to the same period last year. To avoid the impact of additional US tariffs, some small and medium-sized enterprises in industrial clusters even experienced a small surge in export orders before the Spring Festival. Some upstream and midstream enterprises in the industry chain, such as chip packaging, even experienced order backlogs around the Spring Festival. Enterprises are all actively resuming work and production to strive for a strong start.

(3) Expanding New Ideas for Overseas Development

Since last year, going global has become an important choice for many enterprises to achieve stable development. In addition to simply transferring production capacity overseas to avoid tariffs, more enterprises are going abroad in various forms with the aim of being closer to consumer groups, facilitating access to high-end talent, and strengthening brand image, thereby expanding new overseas development. Judging from the overseas development of related industries such as home appliances in 2024, emerging markets in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East still have strong demand for China's electromechanical products, and the high cost-performance ratio and related services of Chinese products are favored by local markets. Therefore, deeply exploring local market demands will provide new growth momentum for China's lighting industry foreign trade. Enterprises engaged in lighting design, engineering construction, and other related fields also need to actively seek growth in overseas markets, becoming a new direction for expanding overseas development in the lighting sector.